What does the emergence of Kristaps Porzingis mean for Carmelo Anthony's future in New York?

For now, despite all these concerns, Carmelo's best option might be to sit tight. With a no-trade clause, that is really easy to do. 

by Ben

30 November 2016 - New York Knicks vs Minnesota Timberwolves

Carmelo Anthony hits another game winner over Andrew Wiggins to add another highlight to his illustrious career.

If I could have any jump shot in the NBA...

It would be Melo's. Watching him hit his latest game winner made me hit the court and work on the 999th change to my jump shot over the past 5 years. Melo's shot is so smooth. Really, everything Melo does is so smooth. So, when he makes a highlight play it is usually insane. 

I still remember Carmelo's amazing season with Denver before he forced his way out with Denver. He had truly put it all together, and was playing some semblance of defence. He was so good, he even had Skip and Steven. A. talking up his MVP chances. Unfortunately, short of leading the Knicks to the 2 seed in the East, that mountain seems very steep for Melo to re-climb. 

During his career, Melo has had to be an MVP calibre forward 

Carmelo has been asked to do a lot from the moment he entered the league. He has averaged over 20 points per game every season of his career, even doing so as a rookie in Denver. The question I really want answered was who was the best teammate for Melo in his career.

So, lets look at the table below - per basketball-reference.com

SEASON	PLAYER	AGE	GAMES PLAYED	PER
2003/04
	Andre Miller	27	82	18.8
	Marcus Camby	29	72	17.8
2004/05
	Marcus Camby	30	66	18
	Kenyon Martin	27	70	17.5
	Earl Boykins	28	82	17.1
2005/06
	Marcus Camby	31	56	19.9
2006/07
	Marcus Camby	32	70	19.1
	Allen Iverson	31	50	18.4
2007/08
	Allen Iverson	32	82	20.9
	J.R. Smith	22	74	18.1
2008/09
	Chauncey Billups	32	77	18.8
	Nene Hilario	26	77	18.8
2009/10
	Chauncey Billups	33	73	20.2
	Nene Hilario	27	82	18.9
2010/11
	Nene Hilario	28	75	20.4
	Amar'e Stoudemire*	28	78	22.7
2011/12
	Jeremy Lin	23	35	19.9
	Tyson Chandler	29	62	18.7
2012/13
	Amar'e Stoudemire	30	29	22.1
	Tyson Chandler	30	66	18.9
2013/14
	Cole Aldrich	25	46	19.1
	Amar'e Stoudemire	31	65	18.8
2014/15
	Alexey Shved	26	16	20.5
	Amar'e Stoudemire	32	36	19.5
	Cole Aldrich	26	61	18.1
2015/16
	Kristaps Porzingis	20	72	17.7
2016/17
	Kyle O'Quinn	26	23	20.7
	Carmelo Anthony	32	23	19.5
	Kristaps Porzingis	21	23	18.8

*Carmelo spent most of the season in Denver, hence Amar'e's numbers may have been different since Melo joined the team.

I took the top PER scores from every season and team Melo has been on since he came into the league, and yeesh. His best teammates were both past their prime, Allen Iverson in Denver and, at times Amar'e, at others Cole Aldrich (!?!?) in New York. So it's clear that he never had his own big 3.

Interestingly, look how close the gap is between Carmelo and Kristaps Porzingis through 23 games this season.

Melo has some new help in the blue, white and orange

Let's look at NY's lineup this year. 

Derrick Rose - at this point in Derrick's career, it's hard to argue that he's not seriously overrated (although at times, this team has needed his one-man offence). Right now, watching the starters Derrick seems to be a plus, and he has shown flashes, but multiple knee injuries has derailed his career. The problem I am having with Derrick this year is he is taking away quality shots from Melo and Porzingis. You could argue that this helps spacing, creates misdirection and countermoves in clutch situations, but I would argue having the ball in Melo and Kristaps' hands is the better option until Derrick proves he is the player he was during that magical MVP season. 

Courtney Lee - no one cares about Courtney Lee. Moving on. 

Kristaps Porzingis - what can I possibly say about this young man that hasn't already been said. He's shooting around 40 per cent from behind the arc, AND let's not forget, he is 7'3. Like, come on. Listen, I played 6'3 guy from Lithuania the other night at my local park. He was head and shoulders (literally) above everyone on the court. I imagine this what playing with Kristaps must be like. I know Dirk is #MFFL, but wouldn't it be so much fun to trade him to the Knicks for some KG/KAT style mentoring? But really, Kristaps needs more touches. He is this team's future, whether that future includes Melo or not. 

Joakim Noah/Willie Hernangomez - yeesh. Their play of late resembles a drunk tourist stumbling up a foreign beach trying to understand what the hell the other people are saying. Sometimes, they can make the pass, or take a shot, but otherwise - they are a stay away. 

In NY, sports media is fast paced, 24 hrs, and can and has ruined some players careers

Melo has escaped any truly significant criticism (aside from some trade rumblings this year). The only time he seems to cop it is when NBA writers in NY get bored and need someone to blame for the team's poor play. Criticism to Melo is like water off a duck's back. He simply brushes it off. Onto the next game.

In this way, he is a perfect mentor for Kristaps. In others, he isn't. Your mentor shouldn't hinder your development. Your mentor shouldn't be taking your shots. Melo says all the right things about Kristaps and his future in NY, but it's time to walk the talk. 

My mentor coach recently asked me to draw a metaphor for my relationship with my mentor. I drew a T2 transit lane - because in Sydney the T2 is an express trip to where you want to go. In that way, it benefits both people in the car. If I were to draw a picture of Melo and Kristaps mentor relationship, I would draw Melo pulling the chair out from behind Kristaps. I think this relationship will improve as  Melo realises how valuable Kristaps will be to his title chances, but as of now, Phil and the triangle really aren't helping the situation.

Melo is too talented to be a 'has been', but is now too old to be the centrepiece of the Knick's offense

Who could forget his insanely hot night against the Bobcats, or his recent hot run of play to lead the Knicks 2016 revival. But, I fear it is too late for him to become a plus defender. Really, the only time I have seen him achieve on the defensive end (he is trying - but lack's the defensive skill set to make a difference) was the aforementioned 2008 season where he cut his hair and became a legit MVP candidate. 

In the Eastern Conference, besides facing the Cavs (who always seem like they are one three pointer away from being en fuego), having a functional defensive system is going to be the key to being in the playoff conversation for the ultimate reward of finishing second to the current NBA champions.

Melo belongs on a team like the Rockets or the Warriors where ultimately defense doesn't really matter and the main point is simply to outscore the other team with blistering offense. Ironically, he was already on a D'Antoni team. 

So maybe the best case outcome for Melo is to become like Vince Carter. Past his prime, but waiting for other pieces to develop. His objective should be to remain really good, work on being more efficient and play more at the 4 (ala Paul Pierce). But, Melo wants to win now. Besides Olympic glory, he has missed out on the accolades and success of his fellow draft classmates, and time is running out. 

How good is Kristaps?

This is the question Melo needs answered. Some others:

• Can Kristaps AND Melo carry the team with a roster of decent role players like Dallas in 2011?
• Can Melo be content to the second fiddle to Kristaps and hang around for a few more years, in the hope that Lebron takes a late career sabbatical to play NFL?

The answers to these I'm afraid is - Not sure, or ask again later.

Perhaps another answer for Melo is to wait and see what Chris Paul does in free agency. I agree seeing CP3 and Melo together in blue orange and white would be fantastic, but it would be like every other time the Knicks have landed a free agent - past their prime and rapidly on the decline. Mortgaging their future in order to achieve short term success. When the star free agent goes down with (an entirely predicable) injury - it's too little too late. With Kristaps, NY has the chance to develop and keep their own superstar, making their free agency moves all the more intriguing. 

But, can you really see Chris leaving LA? No-one besides Dwight leaves LA willingly.

So, having said all that, let's dream up the best case scenario for Melo

As I discussed earlier, Melo is a seriously smooth operator. Forcing his way out of Denver seemed out of character to me, and the whole thing started a firestorm that ended fast with Melo right where he wanted to be. 

Importantly, let's not forget that he recently re-signed with the Knicks. So this is where he decided he wanted to be.

For argument's sake say Melo wanted waive his no-trade clause and move, where is the best fit?

Actually, I don't think we need to think about it too long. I think it would have been to go ahead with that rumoured move to Miami to join the big 3 (ignoring money of course). That team would have been the precursor to this years Warriors. Matt and I have campaigned for years to get Melo and LeBron on the same team, they would match up with just about anyone in the NBA and like their chances (see 2012 Olympics). 

In the current NBA landscape - I like Melo maybe on a team like the Bulls, with Holberg's effective system. And, as with any hypothetical trade we must mention the Celtics. However, both teams would have to give up enough (maybe not so much the Celtics) to facilitate Melo's move and this will cause a negative net result for the team. I also just hate the thought of seeing Carmelo in a Celtics jersey.

I think, if Melo does get traded, its out of the Conference. Look, his perfect place is probably the Clippers. Let's face it, Luc Mbah a Moute is not getting it done on the offensive end. But, I don't see a trade happening without the Clips giving up Blake which would put them in the same position I described above. Also I don't see the Clips giving up Blake. Blake is good. Really good. 

All of this leaves Melo in limbo 

Really, his destiny is out of his hands and instead in the hands of Phil 'I wish they all could be California girls' Jackson and JD and the Straight Shot. 

I'm mad, but I ain't stressing. I want Melo to win, but I really want him to come to the Cavs. 

For now, despite all these concerns, his best option may be to sit tight. With a no-trade clause, that is really easy to do.